Crude oil price to drop as Nigeria, Libya increase production

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Oil production from members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may have reached a new record, according to a Reuters survey, as Nigerian and Libyan output partially recovered from disruptions and Iraq boosted exports.

The report noted that the increasing output could counter OPEC’s ability to seal the Algiers Accord, an agreement reached in Algiers, Algeria in September by the cabal to cut supplies and boost price. Oil price rallied to a 2016 high of $54 a barrel following the decision, but has since slipped towards $48 a barrel.

Supply from OPEC rose to 33.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from a revised 33.69 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources.

That would be 820,000 bpd above the top end of a target output range OPEC agreed to adopt at a September 28 meeting in Algeria. According to analysts, production at about 34 million bpd would prolong the supply surplus weighing on the market.

“With OPEC production creeping up towards 34 million barrels a day, a production freeze guarantees that the oil market will remain out of balance throughout 2017 and into 2018,” said David Hufton of oil broker PVM.

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Meanwhile, a Nigerian militant group threatened on Monday to step up attacks on oil facilities in the Niger Delta if the President pursues a military campaign, casting a shadow over peace talks between the government and groups due to start today.

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